Cold Takes is a free blog and newsletter written by Holden Karnofsky, co-founder of GiveWell and Open Philanthropy. Launched in July 2021, the blog explores big-picture questions about humanity's future, with a central focus on why advanced AI development could make the current century the most consequential in history. Posts are written well in advance of publishing — a deliberate practice that inspired the name 'Cold Takes,' signaling that the ideas are meant to hold up over time rather than react to current events. The blog is no longer actively updated, but its archive — particularly the 'Most Important Century' series — remains a widely read resource in effective altruism and AI safety circles.
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Theory of Change
Cold Takes operates on the premise that the 21st century is likely the most important period in human history due to the plausible near-term development of transformative AI. Karnofsky's theory of impact is primarily epistemic: by making rigorous, carefully considered arguments about AI risk, longtermism, and existential risk accessible to a broad audience — including people without prior EA or technical backgrounds — the blog aims to grow the pool of thoughtful people who take these issues seriously and act accordingly. The blog does not directly fund or build AI safety capacity, but rather shapes how influential individuals and potential donors think about priorities, potentially catalyzing action through changed beliefs and values.
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- Last Updated
- Apr 2, 2026, 10:10 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 19, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC