Planned Obsolescence is an occasional newsletter about AI futurism written by Ajeya Cotra, a researcher at METR focused on understanding and tracking extreme risks from powerful AI. The newsletter aims to make accessible Cotra's thinking on the biggest challenges in AI technical research and policy, covering topics such as AI capabilities forecasting, self-sufficient AI milestones, takeoff speed scenarios, and the implications of AI systems capable of automating most human cognitive and economic activity. Originally co-authored with journalist Kelsey Piper when launched in March 2023, the current Substack incarnation (launched September 2024) is written primarily by Cotra and has over 2,000 free subscribers.
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Theory of Change
By publishing accessible, carefully reasoned analyses of AI capabilities and timelines, Cotra aims to help researchers, policymakers, funders, and the broader EA community develop accurate models of how and when AI systems might become transformatively powerful or dangerous. Better-calibrated beliefs about AI progress are expected to improve research prioritization, policy decisions, and grantmaking in AI safety — ultimately increasing the probability that the transition to powerful AI goes well for humanity.
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Details
- Last Updated
- Apr 2, 2026, 9:53 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 19, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC