Manifold Markets operates the world's largest social prediction market platform, enabling users to create and bet on the outcomes of future events across politics, technology, AI, sports, and any other topic using play money called Mana. Founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen, James Grugett, and Stephen Grugett, the platform emerged from the effective altruism and rationalist communities. Manifold's permissionless approach allows anyone to create markets, making it particularly valuable for rapid coverage of emerging events and niche questions in areas like AI safety and policy. The platform has demonstrated strong forecasting calibration, averaging within 4 percentage points of true probabilities.
Funding Details
- Annual Budget
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- Monthly Burn Rate
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- Current Runway
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- Funding Goal
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- Funding Raised to Date
- $2,220,000
- Fiscal Sponsor
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Theory of Change
Manifold Markets believes that prediction markets are a powerful tool for improving collective decision-making by aggregating dispersed information into probability estimates. By making it free and easy for anyone to create markets on any topic, Manifold lowers barriers to forecasting and enables rapid coverage of emerging events, including those related to AI safety, existential risk, and policy decisions. The platform's theory is that better forecasting leads to more informed decisions by individuals, organizations, and policymakers, ultimately contributing to better outcomes on important questions. Within the EA and rationalist communities, Manifold serves as infrastructure for tracking and debating probabilities around AI timelines, safety interventions, and existential risks, making these topics more legible and accountable.
Grants Received
from Survival and Flourishing Fund
from Survival and Flourishing Fund
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Details
- Last Updated
- Apr 2, 2026, 10:09 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 18, 2026, 11:18 PM UTC