Philip Tetlock
Bio
Philip Eyrikson Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, cross-appointed in the School of Arts and Sciences and the Wharton School. He holds a BA from the University of British Columbia and a PhD in Psychology from Yale University (1979), and previously held faculty positions at UC Berkeley and Ohio State University before joining Penn in 2011. He is best known for his landmark 2005 book Expert Political Judgment, which showed that expert forecasters perform only marginally better than chance, and for Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015, with Dan Gardner), which identified a class of consistently accurate forecasters he termed superforecasters. He co-created the Good Judgment Project, which won IARPA's 2011-2015 geopolitical forecasting tournament by outperforming intelligence analysts, and co-founded Good Judgment Inc. He is President and Chief Scientist of the Forecasting Research Institute, which organized the 2022 Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) to generate calibrated probability estimates for catastrophic and existential risks including AI. His work on forecasting methodology and epistemic humility is foundational to the EA and rationalist communities' approach to prediction and long-term risk assessment. He is a MacArthur Fellow and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Links
- Personal Website
- https://www.sas.upenn.edu/tetlock/
- Twitter / X
- LessWrong
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Details
- Last Updated
- Mar 23, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC
- Created
- Mar 20, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC