Pavel Atanasov
Bio
Pavel Atanasov is an Assistant Professor of Decision Sciences in the Operations and Technology area at IE University (IE Business School) in Madrid, Spain. He holds a PhD in Psychology with a Decision Processes concentration from the University of Pennsylvania, where he subsequently served as a Postdoctoral Scholar at the Good Judgment Project under Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers. He co-founded Pytho in 2016, an R&D and consulting firm specializing in crowdsourced prediction methods, and serves as a Research Lead for Project Improbable at the Forecasting Research Institute. His research focuses on forecasting methodology, crowdsourced prediction systems, talent identification in forecasting, and statistical aggregation algorithms, and has been published in Management Science, Psychological Science, and Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, as well as popular outlets including Scientific American and The Washington Post. He is a co-PI on the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) with Ezra Karger and Philip Tetlock, a major LTFF-funded study in which 169 superforecasters and domain experts made predictions on long-term AI, nuclear, pandemic, and climate risks. His work on improving judgments of low-probability existential risks connects forecasting methodology directly to AI safety and x-risk research.
Links
- Personal Website
- http://www.pavelatanasov.net/
- Twitter / X
- LessWrong
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Details
- Last Updated
- Mar 23, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC
- Created
- Mar 20, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC