Median Group (legally Median Foundation) is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit founded in early 2018 in Berkeley/San Francisco, California, dedicated to research on global catastrophic risks. The organization focuses on modeling technological and geopolitical changes over the next century, with the aim of understanding how their most detrimental effects might be mitigated or averted. Key research includes an interactive insight-based AI timelines model, rough estimates of AGI training feasibility via deep reinforcement learning, analysis of GPU price-performance trends, and studies of climate change impacts on geopolitical stability. The team includes former researchers from MIRI, GiveWell, and Open Philanthropy.
Funding Details
- Annual Budget
- $192,781
- Monthly Burn Rate
- $16,065
- Current Runway
- -
- Funding Goal
- -
- Funding Raised to Date
- -
- Fiscal Sponsor
- -
Theory of Change
Median Group believes that by rigorously modeling technological and geopolitical trends, particularly in AI development and climate change, it can help identify trajectories that lead to global catastrophic outcomes and inform strategies for mitigation. Their insight-based AI timelines approach aims to provide better-calibrated forecasts of AI progress by grounding estimates in the historical rate of major technical discoveries, rather than relying on expert intuition alone. By making these models interactive and publicly available, they seek to improve the epistemic commons around critical questions about AI development timelines and feasibility, helping the broader research community and decision-makers allocate resources more effectively.
Grants Received
from Survival and Flourishing Fund
from Survival and Flourishing Fund
from Survival and Flourishing Fund
Projects
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Details
- Last Updated
- Apr 2, 2026, 9:58 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 18, 2026, 11:18 PM UTC