Epoch AI

San Francisco, CA

Actively Fundraisingestablished21 peopleFounded 2022

Epoch AI is a data-first nonprofit research institute founded in 2022 to investigate the key drivers, progress, and societal impacts of artificial intelligence. The organization builds and maintains comprehensive databases covering AI model training compute, ML hardware performance, frontier data centers, AI company investment, and chip sales. Through empirical trend analysis and quantitative forecasting, Epoch helps grantmakers, policymakers, and technical researchers form better-grounded views on when and how transformative AI capabilities will emerge. The organization also conducts independent AI capability benchmarking, including its flagship FrontierMath benchmark for advanced mathematical reasoning, and offers commissioned research and consultations to government agencies and industry partners.

Funding Details

Annual Budget: $5,000,000
Monthly Burn Rate: $416,667
Current Runway: -
Funding Goal: $3,000,000
Funding Raised to Date: $23,200,000
Fiscal Sponsor: Rethink Priorities

Theory of Change

Epoch AI's theory of change holds that better empirical data and quantitative forecasts about AI progress will lead to better decisions by those with the most leverage over AI's trajectory — including policymakers, grantmakers, and AI researchers. By rigorously tracking compute scaling, algorithmic efficiency, and capability benchmarks, Epoch provides a shared factual foundation that reduces confusion and calibrates expectations about the pace and character of AI development. More accurate forecasts enable funders and governments to allocate resources more wisely, researchers to identify genuine bottlenecks, and policymakers to act with appropriate urgency. Epoch also increases transparency by publishing its data openly, briefing government bodies, and engaging the broader AI safety community, amplifying the epistemic impact of its research.