Formation Research
Formation Research aims to reduce lock-in risk by studying fundamental lock-in dynamics and proposing high-impact interventions. The organization defines lock-in as situations where features of the world — typically negative elements of human culture or political structure — become stable and self-reinforcing for long periods, potentially centuries or millennia. Founded in 2025 and based in Cornwall, UK, Formation is led by Alfie Lamerton and supported by trustees with backgrounds at Anthropic and BlueDot Impact. Research areas include digital error correction mechanisms that stabilize lock-in scenarios, recommender system dynamics, and AI-enabled secret loyalties in language models. The organization is supported by BlueDot Impact, Effective Altruism Funds, and the Future of Life Institute.
Funding Details
- Annual Budget
- -
- Monthly Burn Rate
- -
- Current Runway
- -
- Funding Goal
- -
- Funding Raised to Date
- $10,000
- Fiscal Sponsor
- -
Theory of Change
Formation Research believes that lock-in — the entrenchment of negative features of the world over long timescales — is a pressing but neglected risk, and that advanced AI dramatically increases the probability and stability of such lock-ins. Their theory of change runs: (1) conduct empirical and technical research to understand and quantify the mechanisms by which lock-in occurs, drawing on AI safety, predictive forecasting, and statistical modeling; (2) produce forecasts and technical reports estimating the likelihood of various lock-in scenarios; (3) develop and evaluate high-impact interventions that reduce the probability of lock-in or its expected duration; (4) publish findings to inform researchers, policymakers, and funders. By making lock-in risk legible and tractable, Formation Research aims to shift resources and policy attention toward preventing AI-enabled totalitarianism, extreme power concentration, and other scenarios that would foreclose positive long-term futures.
Grants Received
from Long-Term Future Fund
Projects
No linked projects.
People
No linked people.
Discussion
Sign in to join the discussion.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts.
Details
- Last Updated
- Apr 2, 2026, 9:59 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 19, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC