Formation Research is a UK-based not-for-profit that researches lock-in risk — the danger that negative features of the world, such as authoritarian power structures or AI-enabled totalitarianism, become permanently entrenched — and develops interventions to minimize it.
Formation Research is a UK-based not-for-profit that researches lock-in risk — the danger that negative features of the world, such as authoritarian power structures or AI-enabled totalitarianism, become permanently entrenched — and develops interventions to minimize it.
People
Updated 05/18/26Founder and Research Lead
Advisor
Funding Details
Updated 05/18/26- Annual Budget
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- Current Runway
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- Funding Goal
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- Funding Raised to Date
- $10,000
Org Details
Updated 05/18/26Formation Research is a UK not-for-profit company (company number 16344389), incorporated on 26 March 2025 and registered in Penryn, Cornwall. It holds 501(c)(3) equivalency determination through NGO Source, enabling US-based tax-deductible donations. The organization was founded by Alfie Lamerton, who holds a computer science BSc and an AI MSc and has a background in software engineering and AI safety research. Formation's core focus is lock-in risk: the risk that negative features of the world — such as authoritarian governance, extreme concentration of power, or ideological stagnation — become stable and resistant to change for very long periods. The organization identifies AI as a key technology that could accelerate or entrench such lock-ins, for example through AI-enabled totalitarian control, algorithmic recommender systems that reinforce ideological conformity, and language models with embedded secret loyalties to specific actors. The organization conducts multiple lines of empirical and technical research. Published work includes analyses of digital error correction properties that make future lock-in scenarios more stable, and an examination of recommender alignment for lock-in. Ongoing research investigates 'secret loyalties' — objectives encoded in language models that favor particular actors and can be activated by private conditions. Formation Research is a very small organization, currently composed primarily of Alfie Lamerton as founder and research lead. Its trustees include Adam Jones (member of technical staff at Anthropic, former AI safety lead at BlueDot Impact) and Luke Drago (CEO of Workshop Labs, former AI governance specialist at BlueDot Impact, co-author of 'The Intelligence Curse'). Fin Moorhouse (Research Fellow at Forethought, formerly at FHI and Longview Philanthropy) serves as an adviser. The organization has received a $10,000 grant from the Long-Term Future Fund (EA Funds, Q4 2024 round) to support a 12-month salary to set up the organization and conduct initial research.
Theory of Change
Updated 05/18/26Formation Research believes that lock-in — the entrenchment of negative features of the world over long timescales — is a pressing but neglected risk, and that advanced AI dramatically increases the probability and stability of such lock-ins. Their theory of change runs: (1) conduct empirical and technical research to understand and quantify the mechanisms by which lock-in occurs, drawing on AI safety, predictive forecasting, and statistical modeling; (2) produce forecasts and technical reports estimating the likelihood of various lock-in scenarios; (3) develop and evaluate high-impact interventions that reduce the probability of lock-in or its expected duration; (4) publish findings to inform researchers, policymakers, and funders. By making lock-in risk legible and tractable, Formation Research aims to shift resources and policy attention toward preventing AI-enabled totalitarianism, extreme power concentration, and other scenarios that would foreclose positive long-term futures.
Grants Received
Updated 05/18/26Projects– no linked projects
Updated 05/18/26Discussion
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