Arb Research is a research consultancy led by Gavin Leech and Charles Dillon whose work spans forecasting, machine learning, and policy. Founded around 2021, Arb conducts original research, evidence reviews, and large-scale data pipelines for clients including Open Philanthropy, Schmidt Futures, Stripe, FAR AI, and the Institute for Progress. Their core focus areas are AI safety landscape reviews, AI forecasting methodology, evaluation of questionable practices in ML, and strategy research for philanthropic organizations.
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Theory of Change
Arb believes that improving the quality and accessibility of research on AI safety and AI forecasting helps funders, policymakers, and researchers make better decisions. By producing rigorous, independent landscape reviews and evaluations, Arb reduces information asymmetries in the AI safety field, enabling grants and organizational resources to flow to higher-impact work. Their forecasting work improves collective epistemic accuracy about AI trajectories, which feeds into better strategic planning by safety organizations. By identifying questionable practices in ML evaluation, they help establish higher standards for AI research quality, indirectly improving the reliability of safety-relevant benchmarks and assessments.
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from Open Philanthropy
from Open Philanthropy
from Open Philanthropy
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Details
- Last Updated
- Apr 2, 2026, 10:09 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 20, 2026, 2:34 AM UTC