AI Impacts

Berkeley, California

establishedFounded 2014

AI Impacts is a research project dedicated to answering decision-relevant questions about the future of artificial intelligence. Founded in 2014 by Katja Grace and Paul Christiano, the project conducts empirical research on AI timelines, expert predictions about AI progress, discontinuous technological change, and the potential impacts of human-level AI. AI Impacts is best known for its large-scale surveys of AI researchers, including the landmark 2023 survey of over 2,700 AI experts published in the Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research. The project operates under the fiscal sponsorship of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) and releases its research pages under a CC0 public domain license.

Funding Details

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Fiscal Sponsor: Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI)

Theory of Change

AI Impacts believes that the details of how and when human-level AI arrives will critically shape whether humanity navigates the transition safely. By conducting rigorous empirical research on AI timelines, expert predictions, and historical patterns of technological change, the project aims to replace speculation with evidence-based analysis. This improved understanding helps researchers, philanthropists, and policymakers make better decisions about how to allocate resources and attention to AI safety. The theory is that more accurate forecasting and clearer presentation of what is actually known about AI's trajectory reduces the risk of being caught off guard by rapid AI progress and helps the AI safety community prioritize effectively.