Forecasting Research Institute

Claymont, Delaware, USA

established18 peopleFounded 2022

The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) is a nonprofit research organization whose mission is to advance the science of forecasting for the public good. FRI develops and rigorously tests forecasting methods, produces high-quality predictions on complex long-run topics, and works to make forecasting useful to policymakers and organizations facing consequential decisions. Key research programs include the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), ForecastBench (an LLM forecasting benchmark), and expert studies on nuclear and biosecurity risks.

Funding Details

Annual Budget: $2,293,916
Monthly Burn Rate: $191,160
Current Runway: -
Funding Goal: -
Funding Raised to Date: $8,687,140
Fiscal Sponsor: -

Theory of Change

FRI believes that better calibrated, quantitative forecasts about catastrophic and existential risks will improve decision-making by policymakers, philanthropists, and the broader EA community. By producing rigorous probability estimates on AI risk, nuclear risk, and biosecurity threats — and by developing the scientific methods to make such forecasts reliable — FRI creates a more accurate empirical foundation for prioritizing and funding interventions. If key decision-makers have better-calibrated uncertainty about tail risks, they can allocate resources more rationally, respond to early warning signals earlier, and avoid both over- and under-reaction to speculative threats. FRI also works to identify sources of disagreement among experts, which can surface crux questions that — if answered — would most change the field's collective beliefs about existential risk.