Sentinel

Sentinel is an open-source intelligence organization cofounded by Nuno Sempere and Rai Sur that rapidly identifies and responds to global catastrophic risks. The organization operates two integrated teams: a foresight division that monitors and forecasts emerging catastrophic threats, and an emergency response team that stands ready to take rapid, effective action when crises materialize. The foresight team processes approximately two million news items weekly using LLM-enabled analysis tools, with initial AI prioritization followed by calibrated probability assessments from human forecasters. The team includes members from the renowned Samotsvety forecasting group and publishes free weekly risk briefings covering threats such as pandemics (H5N1), geopolitical conflicts, solar flares, AI incidents and governance developments, nuclear risks, and potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Their track record includes correctly anticipating the WHO's monkeypox PHEIC declaration with detailed analysis ahead of the announcement. The emergency response team is a reserve force with diverse skill sets spanning biotech, machine learning, policy, international relations, nuclear and chemical expertise, and disaster response. When activated by the foresight team's early warnings, they search for the highest-impact actions available. The model draws inspiration from organizations like VaccinateCA, which outperformed official California vaccine distribution systems, and World Central Kitchen, which consistently outpaces government disaster response. Nuno Sempere, Head of Foresight, previously founded the Samotsvety forecasting group, described by Scott Alexander as around twice as good as the next-best team in forecasting competitions. Rai Sur, Head of Emergency Response, is a former CTO at Alongside (funded by Andreessen Horowitz) and former Ethereum core developer. The broader team includes superforecasters, AI policy researchers, biosecurity consultants, and experienced operations professionals. Sentinel received initial proof-of-concept funding via Manifund in March 2024, followed by grants from the Survival and Flourishing Fund and private donors. The organization is incorporated as a US 501(c)(3) nonprofit and has also received funding through Epistea, z. s. as fiscal sponsor. They publish their analysis freely via their Substack newsletter, the Sentinel Podcast, and social media.