Sentinel
Sentinel is an open-source intelligence nonprofit that safeguards against cascading crises and institutional failure during pivotal moments. The foresight team uses LLM-enabled analysis of approximately two million news pieces per week, combined with elite human forecasters, to identify and track emerging threats such as pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, AI incidents, and other potential global catastrophes. They publish free weekly risk briefings via their Substack newsletter and maintain a reserve emergency response team with diverse expertise ready to deploy when early warning signals trigger activation.
Funding Details
- Annual Budget
- -
- Monthly Burn Rate
- -
- Current Runway
- -
- Funding Goal
- $1,600,000
- Funding Raised to Date
- $700,000
- Fiscal Sponsor
- Epistea, z. s.
Theory of Change
Current existential risk mitigation efforts suffer from long feedback loops between models and reality, creating significant model-error risk. Sentinel addresses this by monitoring events and updating risk forecasts in real-time using world-class forecasters and AI-augmented analysis. The theory rests on two key observations: first, that well-resourced state actors have repeatedly demonstrated incompetence during crises (as shown by VaccinateCA outperforming US vaccine distribution and World Central Kitchen outpacing government disaster response); and second, that talented generalists deployed rapidly with early warning can take high-impact actions faster than large institutions. By providing calibrated probability assessments to decision-makers and maintaining a reserve team ready for deployment, Sentinel aims to reduce the gap between when catastrophic risks become detectable and when effective action begins.
Grants Received
from Survival and Flourishing Fund
Projects
No linked projects.
People
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Details
- Last Updated
- Mar 19, 2026, 8:06 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 18, 2026, 11:18 PM UTC