The Power Law

The Power Law is a Substack newsletter launched on January 30, 2025, by Peter Wildeford (also known online as Peter Hurford). Wildeford is a prominent figure in the AI safety and effective altruism communities, having co-founded Rethink Priorities in 2018 and the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS). He currently serves as Head of Policy at The AI Policy Network and is based in Washington, DC. The newsletter's name refers to the concept that power follows patterns — from network effects to computational scaling to governmental regulation — and that a small handful of decisions disproportionately shape the future. It maps fault lines between exponential technology and human systems, with forecasts dissecting AI milestones and geopolitical events using the rigor of competitive forecasting. Wildeford is consistently ranked in the top 1% of forecasters on platforms like Metaculus and placed first in the Astral Codex Ten - Metaculus tournament for 2025 out of nearly 3,000 competitors. Content covers AI forecasting and capability assessments, AI policy and governance, national security implications of advanced AI, geopolitical analysis, and technology trends. The newsletter had over 6,000 free subscribers as of early 2026 and operates on a Substack model with free and paid tiers. It is a solo publication by Peter Wildeford and is not a formal nonprofit organization.