The Transformative Futures Institute (TFI) is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit research organization founded in 2022 and based in Wichita, Kansas. Its mission is to guide humanity toward vibrant and flourishing futures by applying underutilized foresight techniques to the most pressing AI risks. TFI specializes in methods such as forecasting, wargaming, scenario planning, agent-based modeling, and horizon scanning to anticipate societal-scale risks from transformative AI, with the goal of informing government policy and high-level decision-making. The institute positions itself as filling a gap in the AI safety ecosystem by focusing specifically on foresight methodologies rather than duplicating technical alignment work done elsewhere.
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Theory of Change
TFI believes that policymakers and decision-makers currently lack the rigorous, forward-looking intelligence needed to proactively prevent catastrophic AI outcomes. By applying underutilized foresight methods — including probabilistic forecasting, wargaming, red teaming, and agent-based modeling — TFI generates research that reveals plausible risk scenarios and potential intervention points before crises emerge. This research is then disseminated directly to government policymakers and institutional stakeholders with the power to implement regulatory and governance changes. The causal chain is: rigorous foresight research identifies neglected risk pathways and scenarios, policymakers are equipped with actionable intelligence, better-informed governance decisions reduce the probability and severity of catastrophic AI outcomes.
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from Long-Term Future Fund
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- Last Updated
- Apr 2, 2026, 9:59 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 19, 2026, 10:42 PM UTC