Metaculus is a public benefit corporation that operates an online forecasting platform where thousands of forecasters submit probabilistic predictions on questions spanning science, technology, geopolitics, health, and existential risk. Founded in 2015 by Anthony Aguirre, Greg Laughlin, and Max Wainwright, Metaculus aggregates individual predictions into calibrated community forecasts that consistently outperform simple averages. The platform hosts Pro Forecasters who provide decision-grade predictions for institutional partners including the CDC, and runs large-scale forecasting tournaments in partnership with organizations like Bridgewater Associates. Metaculus also benchmarks AI forecasting capabilities through its FutureEval initiative and has made its codebase open source.
Funding Details
- Annual Budget
- -
- Monthly Burn Rate
- -
- Current Runway
- -
- Funding Goal
- -
- Funding Raised to Date
- $6,900,000
- Fiscal Sponsor
- -
Theory of Change
Metaculus believes that better forecasting leads to better decisions on the world's most consequential challenges. By aggregating the predictions of thousands of forecasters into well-calibrated probability estimates, the platform aims to provide decision-makers in government, philanthropy, and research with actionable foresight on issues like AI development trajectories, pandemic risk, nuclear security, and climate change. Their theory of change operates through three channels: providing forecasts as a public good that reduce uncertainty around high-stakes decisions, building a global forecasting community that improves collective epistemic capacity, and advancing forecasting methodology through research and AI benchmarking. For existential risk specifically, Metaculus enables the EA and longtermist communities to track and quantify risks from advanced AI, engineered pandemics, and other global catastrophic scenarios, helping funders and policymakers allocate resources more effectively by grounding debates in calibrated probabilistic reasoning rather than intuition alone.
Grants Received
from Survival and Flourishing Fund
from Open Philanthropy
Projects
No linked projects.
People
No linked people.
Discussion
Sign in to join the discussion.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts.
Details
- Last Updated
- Apr 2, 2026, 10:10 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 18, 2026, 11:18 PM UTC