Metaculus

Metaculus is a public benefit corporation that operates an online forecasting platform designed to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. Founded in November 2015 by physicist Anthony Aguirre, astronomer Greg Laughlin, and data scientist Max Wainwright, the platform enables users to submit probabilistic predictions on binary, numerical-range, and date-range questions. Metaculus aggregates these individual forecasts into a community prediction using a recency-weighted median, which on average outperforms the median of individual predictions. As of 2025, the platform hosts over 21,000 questions with more than 9,000 resolved, and has received over 2.9 million predictions. In 2022, Metaculus restructured as a public benefit corporation with a charter committing it to three goals: fostering the growth of the forecasting community, supporting stakeholders serving the public good by informing their decision-making, and increasing public access to forecasts of public interest. That same year, Metaculus received a $5.5 million grant from Open Philanthropy to fund hiring and platform development for high-impact forecasting programs on AI, biosecurity, climate change, and nuclear security. Metaculus operates several key programs. Its Pro Forecasters program selects the most accurate community forecasters to deliver calibrated predictions with detailed reasoning for institutional partners. In a notable partnership with the CDC, Metaculus Pro Forecasters contribute to the annual Respiratory Disease Season Outlook, marking the first time the CDC incorporated aggregate probability estimates from crowd forecasting into its public health guidance. The platform also runs large-scale forecasting competitions, including the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest, which attracted over 17,000 competitors globally in 2025. In February 2026, Metaculus launched FutureEval, a continuously updated benchmark measuring how accurately AI systems predict real-world events compared to human forecasters. FutureEval includes a Model Leaderboard tracking major AI models and Bot Tournaments with $175,000 in annual prizes. Current projections suggest AI systems could surpass the broader Metaculus community by April 2026 and Pro Forecasters by mid-2027. In 2024, Metaculus completely rewrote its platform and made the codebase open source, with a third of code contributors now coming from outside the organization. The platform has been used to generate forecasts relevant to existential risk reduction, including AI timelines, nuclear weapons policy, pandemic preparedness, and climate scenarios. Metaculus has collaborated with the Federation of American Scientists on policy recommendations for using crowd forecasting in government decision-making. The organization's leadership transitioned in 2024 when Deger Turan became CEO, succeeding co-founder Gaia Dempsey who moved to a Special Advisor and board member role. Anthony Aguirre, who also co-founded the Future of Life Institute, remains involved as a co-founder. As of early 2026, Metaculus has approximately 28 employees across multiple continents.