Augur

Augur is an AI research consultancy founded by Nikhil Mulani in early 2025, focused on foresight and strategy across the frontier AI supply chain. The consultancy was established to investigate the deep uncertainties surrounding AI development and geopolitics and to identify opportunities to set foundations for a better future. Augur's research is organized around three priority areas. First, monitoring and analyzing the hardware and software supply chains for frontier AI model development, including semiconductor equipment, chip design, compute services, critical minerals, and datasets, with particular attention to the effects of trade controls and AI-augmented research and development. Second, investigating highly strategic use cases for frontier AI, including resource allocation and negotiation tools that could reshape AI development trajectories. Third, researching control and ownership structures, examining the assets, entities, and structures that will gain outsized importance as AI services proliferate across the economy. Nikhil Mulani brings extensive experience in AI policy and technology. He previously led work on AI security policy on the National Policy team at the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) as a Horizon Institute fellow. He was a Winter Fellow at the Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI), where he developed a policy proposal for information-sharing between leading AI labs and the UK Office for AI. He has also collaborated with the Centre for Long-Term Resilience on UK AI regulation and international policy, and co-authored the CETaS briefing paper "Strengthening Resilience to AI Risk" at the Alan Turing Institute. Before policy work, he spent over six years as a product manager building machine learning software and consulting with commercial and government clients. He holds an MBA from the Wharton School and a BA in Classics from Harvard University. Since its founding, Augur has published research on the evolving AI supply chain, semiconductor leadership strategy, AI supply chain implications of trade wars, and U.S. strategic engagement with Gulf states' AI ambitions. The consultancy received a $160,000 grant from the Survival and Flourishing Fund in the 2025 S-Process round, plus a $20,000 SFF Speculation Grant.