A UK-based research and advocacy think tank that combines complexity modelling, expert elicitation, and democratic deliberation to improve policymaking around existential and catastrophic risks.
A UK-based research and advocacy think tank that combines complexity modelling, expert elicitation, and democratic deliberation to improve policymaking around existential and catastrophic risks.
People
Updated 05/18/26Founder and CEO
Research Assistant
Foresight Advisor
Research Associate
Research Assistant
Funding Details
Updated 05/18/26- Annual Budget
- $54,416
- Current Runway
- -
- Funding Goal
- -
- Funding Raised to Date
- -
Org Details
Updated 05/18/26The Odyssean Institute is a UK-registered charitable incorporated organisation (CIO) founded in 2022 by Giuseppe Dal Pra, a graduate of Balliol College, University of Oxford, in History and Politics, and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. The institute was developed from two treatises authored by Dal Pra in 2017 and 2019 on how best to address complex risks to civilisation through democratic means, and was formally registered as a charity in September 2023. The institute's core contribution is the Odyssean Process, outlined in a white paper published on the EA Forum in November 2023. This methodology integrates three components into a unified policy development framework: systematic expert elicitation through horizon scanning, robust computational foresight using Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) to explore multiple possible futures rather than producing single consolidated forecasts, and democratic deliberation through citizen assemblies and the IDEA Protocol. The process targets complex wicked problems, particularly existential and global catastrophic risks, and typically unfolds over several months with parallel phases. The institute runs several key projects. The GRAIN Initiative (Global Resilient Anticipatory Infrastructure Network) is a proposed diplomatic and trade network aimed at building capacity between nodes of persisting complexity, meaning states that could act as civilisational shelters for recovery after a collapse. The initiative identifies critical chokepoints where strategic interventions could strengthen systemic robustness across global supply chains. The AI Foresight Assembly project applies the institute's methodology specifically to AI governance and emerging technology policy, combining cutting-edge foresight with public deliberation to generate adaptive pathways that keep pace with emerging trends. The team is a multidisciplinary group based globally, with 5 trustees including Dal Pra as President, Dr Jan Kwakkel, Paul Ingram, Dr Daniel Hoyer, and Dr Catherine Anne Rhodes, along with approximately 6 volunteers and researchers. Team members bring expertise spanning AI safety, complexity economics, machine learning, metascience, expert elicitation methods, and public deliberation. The institute also maintains an academic advisory board composed of leading practitioners and researchers. The Odyssean Institute operates across 7 countries including the United Kingdom, United States, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Brazil, and Taiwan. It has received funding from the Survival and Flourishing Fund, the Dag Strand Nielsen and Family Foundation, and has raised funds through Manifund. The institute published a GRAIN Overview Report on the EA Forum in July 2025.
Theory of Change
Updated 05/18/26The Odyssean Institute believes that the only robust, effective, and sustainable solutions to civilisational risk are those that are empirically guided, expert informed, and democratically legitimate. Their theory of change operates through three interconnected mechanisms: first, systematic expert elicitation through horizon scanning brings together multiple scientific disciplines to pragmatically identify emerging risks in the policy-making process. Second, computational foresight using DMDU methods explores multiple possible futures rather than relying on single-point forecasts, enabling the development of robust adaptive policies. Third, democratic deliberation through citizen assemblies ensures that the values and perspectives of the public are incorporated, creating legitimacy and buy-in for the resulting policies. By combining these three approaches into the Odyssean Process, the institute aims to address the democratic deficit in civilisational risk mitigation, trigger beneficial social tipping points, and build institutional capacity to navigate complex problems during times of crisis. Their GRAIN initiative extends this logic internationally by identifying and strengthening critical nodes in global systems where resilience investments can have the greatest impact on civilisational recovery potential.
Grants Received
Updated 05/18/26Projects
Updated 05/18/26An application of the Odyssean Process to AI governance that combines expert horizon scanning, exploratory modelling and citizens’ assemblies to develop adaptive, democratically legitimate policy pathways for advanced AI systems.
A diplomatic and trade initiative to connect “nodes of persisting complexity” – states with critical roles in food, energy and trade systems – so they can coordinate investments and preferential agreements that strengthen global resilience and recovery capacity in the face of catastrophic risks.
A pilot application of the first phase of the Odyssean Process that used structured expert elicitation to scan for emerging global catastrophic risks and tipping points, producing a horizon scan that informs subsequent modelling and democratic deliberation.
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