Logan McNichols

Logan McNichols received a $3,200 grant from the Long-Term Future Fund in December 2021 to fund participants in testing a forecasting training program. The program's core approach involves backcasting — simulating normal forecasting on questions that have already been resolved — to enable rapid feedback that is otherwise unavailable in standard forecasting, where resolution can take months or years. The program used teams of two (an information gatherer and a forecaster) to address the practical challenges of backcasting exercises. The LTFF fund managers noted the small size of the grant meant they did not evaluate it in depth, but found the basic idea reasonable and potentially useful for people seeking to improve their forecasting skills. No further public information about Logan McNichols' background, affiliation, or other work is available.

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