Mikhail Yagudin

Mikhail "Misha" Yagudin is a researcher and forecaster best known as co-founder of Arb Research, an EA-aligned research consultancy, and Samotsvety Forecasting, a superforecasting group that has won top rankings on platforms such as INFER. He studied machine learning at the Yandex School of Data Analysis in Russia, participated extensively in math olympiads, and did early EA community building in Russia including distributing copies of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality to math olympiad winners to recruit talented students to the rationality and AI safety communities. He previously worked with the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford and has been a contractor or collaborator for the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute. At Arb, he has worked on forecasting, AI risk assessments, talent identification, and has served as a grantmaker directing approximately $1 million to individual researchers. He is also a founding advisor at SAGE Future.

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