Global and Emerging Risks

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About

RAND Global and Emerging Risks (GER) is a research division of RAND Corporation, one of the world's preeminent nonpartisan policy research institutions. GER was established as part of RAND's 'Tomorrow Demands Today' capital campaign (launched 2020, concluded 2024 having raised over $466 million), which also created 18 new centers, institutes, and chair positions across RAND. Jim Mitre, who previously served as director of RAND's International Security and Defense Policy Program and had over a decade of service in the U.S. Department of Defense, was named the inaugural vice president and director of GER circa 2023. In January 2026, Mitre was elevated to Senior Vice President and Chief Research Officer of RAND, and in March 2026, Matan Chorev—a national security and foreign policy expert who had joined RAND in March 2025 as deputy director of GER—was appointed as the new vice president and director of GER. GER's establishment is predicated on the view that policymakers and global society lack sufficient understanding of the catastrophic risks confronting humanity, and that society is failing to prioritize prudent steps to reduce these risks relative to their potential consequences. The division serves as a hub of intellectual exchange, develops new analytical methods, and trains the next generation of strategists for geopolitical and technological security dynamics. The division is organized around several research centers and programs: the Center on AI, Security, and Technology (CAST) conducts research on AI and biotechnology policy; the Meselson Center focuses on reducing risks from biological threats and emerging biotechnologies; the RAND China Research Center (CRC) deepens understanding of China's capabilities, intentions, and behaviors; the RAND Center for Climate and Energy Futures (CCEF) studies climate-related emerging risks; the Center for the Geopolitics of AGI (launched December 2023) addresses national security and geopolitical implications of artificial general intelligence; and the Technology and Security Policy Center (TASP) and RAND Forecasting Initiative round out the division's methodological and analytical work. GER also houses RAND's international research chairs for regionally focused analysis. Notable research outputs include a landmark assessment of global catastrophic and existential risks (covering AI, pandemics, nuclear war, asteroid impacts, and supervolcanoes) conducted in response to the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act of 2022, as well as studies on AI extinction risk and the geopolitics of AGI. RAND Corporation overall employs approximately 1,850 staff and reported $514 million in total revenues in fiscal year 2024, with the U.S. federal government providing $328 million of that. GER's specific budget is not separately disclosed.

Theory of Change

GER operates on the premise that policymakers currently lack sufficient understanding of catastrophic and existential risks to act on them proportionately. By producing rigorous, independent research and developing new analytical methods, GER aims to close this knowledge gap: better-informed policymakers will prioritize and implement prudent risk-reduction measures. The division focuses on risks that are underserved by other research institutions and that could be catastrophic or existential at civilizational scale. On AI specifically, GER believes that understanding both the technical risk landscape and the geopolitical dynamics around advanced AI (including AGI) is a prerequisite for governments to adopt effective safety and governance policies. On biosecurity, nuclear risk, and climate, the same model applies: rigorous scenario analysis and policy-relevant research translate into better governmental decision-making and, ultimately, reduced probability of catastrophic outcomes.

Details

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Last Updated: Apr 3, 2026, 2:03 AM UTC
Created: Apr 3, 2026, 2:03 AM UTC