The AI Futures Project is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit research organization focused on forecasting the development and societal impact of advanced artificial intelligence. Founded in 2025 by Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI governance researcher, the organization produces detailed scenario forecasts, conducts tabletop exercises and wargames for policymakers, and maintains interactive forecasting models. Their work aims to help decision-makers understand and prepare for rapid advances in AI capabilities, with a particular focus on trajectories toward artificial general intelligence and superintelligence.
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Theory of Change
The AI Futures Project believes that detailed, concrete scenario forecasts of AI development trajectories are essential for informed decision-making about AI governance and safety. By producing rigorous forecasts and making them vivid through narrative scenarios, tabletop exercises, and interactive models, they aim to help policymakers, researchers, and the public understand the plausible speed and consequences of advanced AI development. Their theory is that if decision-makers have a clear, evidence-based picture of how AI capabilities might advance and what risks might emerge, they will be better equipped to implement appropriate safety measures, governance frameworks, and international coordination before it is too late. The causal chain runs from forecasting research to public awareness and policy engagement, ultimately leading to better-prepared institutions and reduced existential risk from advanced AI.
Grants Received
from Survival and Flourishing Fund
from Survival and Flourishing Fund
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Details
- Last Updated
- Apr 2, 2026, 9:48 PM UTC
- Created
- Mar 18, 2026, 11:18 PM UTC
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