AI Futures Project

The AI Futures Project is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit research organization (EIN 99-4320292, previously named Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Inc) that specializes in forecasting the development and societal impact of advanced artificial intelligence. The organization was founded in 2025 by Daniel Kokotajlo, who resigned from OpenAI's governance division in April 2024 over concerns that the company was prioritizing rapid product development over AI safety. The organization's mission is to develop detailed scenario forecasts of the trajectory of advanced AI systems to inform policymakers, researchers, and the public. It operates with a small core research team and a network of advisors drawn from AI policy, forecasting, and risk analysis. The AI Futures Project's flagship publication is AI 2027, a detailed scenario forecast released in April 2025 that describes possible developments in AI between 2025 and 2027. The scenario was authored by Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland, Thomas Larsen, and Romeo Dean, with editing assistance from blogger Scott Alexander. It was created in collaboration with Lightcone Infrastructure, which built the interactive website. AI 2027 depicts rapid progress in AI capabilities, including autonomous AI systems capable of recursive self-improvement, and presents two alternative endings exploring different policy responses. Over a million people read the scenario in its first weeks, including U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who reportedly referenced its warnings in conversations about international AI coordination. Beyond written reports, the team conducts tabletop exercises and workshops based on their scenarios, involving participants from academia, technology, and public policy. These exercises simulate AI takeoff scenarios where participants take on roles such as national leaders or AI company CEOs. The organization also maintains an interactive AI forecasting model at aifuturesmodel.com, publishing probability distributions for AI capability timelines. The core team includes Daniel Kokotajlo (Executive Director), Eli Lifland (Research Lead, top-ranked on RAND Forecasting Initiative's all-time leaderboard), Thomas Larsen (Research Lead, founder of Center for AI Policy), Romeo Dean (Researcher, Harvard graduate specializing in AI chip production forecasting), and Lauren Mangla (Chief Operating Officer, managing communications, media relations, and operations). The scenario work originated through Constellation's Astra Fellowship program in Berkeley, where team members first began collaborating.