Sage builds tools to improve forecasting skills and public understanding of AI capabilities, with the goal of reducing global catastrophic risks from emerging technologies.
Sage builds tools to improve forecasting skills and public understanding of AI capabilities, with the goal of reducing global catastrophic risks from emerging technologies.
People
Updated 05/18/26Director
Founding Advisor
Advisor on AI Village
Founding Advisor
Founding Advisor
Member of Technical Staff
Member of Technical Staff (Epistemics)
Member of Technical Staff
Funding Details
Updated 05/18/26- Annual Budget
- $699,000
- Current Runway
- -
- Funding Goal
- -
- Funding Raised to Date
- -
Org Details
Updated 05/18/26Sage (Sage Future Inc) is a US 501(c)(3) nonprofit founded in 2022 and based in Dover, Delaware. The organization was originally established by forecasting researchers Eli Lifland, Aaron Ho, and Misha Yagudin with the goal of creating a forecasting platform and paid forecasting team focused on high-impact predictions in areas like AI governance. After early challenges making resolvable questions for AI governance topics, the organization pivoted toward building epistemics training tools for the broader effective altruism and AI safety community. Adam Binksmith, a former PhD student in Human-Computer Interaction at a UK university, joined and became Director. He leads strategy, product direction, hiring, impact evaluation, and fundraising. The current technical team includes Zak Miller, Shoshannah Tekofsky, and Simon Steshin, with founding advisors Eli Lifland, Aaron Ho, and Misha Yagudin, and Daniel Kokotajlo advising on the AI Village project. Sage's flagship products are Fatebook, a prediction-tracking tool available on the web, Slack, Discord, and as a Chrome extension; Quantified Intuitions, which provides calibration games, pastcasting on resolved Metaculus questions, and estimation exercises; and AI Digest, a growing suite of interactive explainers and demonstrations of current AI capabilities intended to inform policymakers and the general public. AI Village is an experimental project documenting frontier AI systems pursuing real-world goals. Sage received initial funding from the FTX Future Fund in 2022, and later received a $1.1 million grant from Good Ventures Foundation and $27,000 from Silicon Valley Community Foundation (reported in 2024 filings). The organization's 2024 990 filing reported total revenues of approximately $1.5 million and total expenses of approximately $699,000. Sage accepts donations through Every.org and direct channels.
Theory of Change
Updated 05/18/26Sage believes that improving the epistemic quality of decision-makers and the public is a key lever for reducing global catastrophic risk. By giving people better forecasting skills (through Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions), they aim to produce more accurate, calibrated beliefs about AI risks and future developments. Through AI Digest and interactive AI capability demonstrations, they aim to ensure that policymakers and influential stakeholders have accurate, up-to-date mental models of what AI systems can do, reducing the likelihood of catastrophic decisions based on outdated or inaccurate information. Building a large, trusted audience for their AI capabilities content during the period of rapid AI advancement is the core mechanism.
Grants Received
Updated 05/18/26Projects
Updated 05/18/26A Sage project that produces interactive explainers and demos to communicate key trends and real capabilities of modern AI systems to policymakers and the public.
A livestreamed AI Digest experiment where frontier AI agents share a computer and group chat while pursuing open-ended real-world goals, such as raising money for charity.
A forecasting tool from Sage that lets individuals and teams quickly record, track, and resolve probabilistic predictions on the web, in Slack, and via browser extensions.
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