Guesstimate
maintenance
About
Updated 05/18/26Guesstimate is an online spreadsheet application where cells can contain probability distributions instead of point values, with Monte Carlo simulation used to propagate uncertainty through a model. It has been widely used in the effective altruism community for Fermi estimates and cost-effectiveness analyses and is now maintained by QURI, which treats it as a precursor and complement to Squiggle and Squiggle Hub.
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Updated 05/18/26Endorsements support Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.
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