Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute

Berkeley, California

earlyFounded 2019

The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit based in Berkeley, California, founded by Ozzie Gooen in 2019. QURI researches systematic practices for specifying and estimating the most important parameters in high-stakes decisions, with focus areas including forecasting, epistemics, evaluations, ontology, and estimation. Their flagship project is Squiggle, a probabilistic programming language for intuition-driven quantitative estimation, along with Squiggle Hub (a community platform for sharing models), Metaforecast (an aggregator of predictions across forecasting platforms), and Guesstimate (a spreadsheet tool for probability distributions). QURI is fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities and funded primarily by EA-aligned donors including the Survival and Flourishing Fund and the Long-Term Future Fund.

Funding Details

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Fiscal Sponsor: Rethink Priorities

Theory of Change

QURI believes that humanity's success over the coming centuries depends critically on the ability to coordinate and make good decisions, and that major governmental, philanthropic, and research institutions can become substantially more effective through better tools for quantifying uncertainty and reasoning under deep uncertainty. Their approach is to develop open-source probabilistic tools (especially Squiggle), conduct experiments on forecasting methodology, create frameworks for evaluating important decisions and projects, and produce research on forecasting and estimation practices. They aim to demonstrate these tools work by applying them internally and sharing them with effective nonprofits and funding bodies. By improving how key decision-makers specify and estimate critical parameters, QURI hopes to increase institutional resilience against existential risks and improve resource allocation toward high-impact work over the next 5-30 years.